Quel est l'avenir de Bitcoin? Deviendra-t-il une monnaie dominante ou sa popularité diminuera-t-elle et pourquoi?

Winson Ng

Winson Ng, Blogging Tout sur Bitcoin & Cryptos sur CoinZodiaC.com (2017-present)

Répondu il y a 47w

Maybe you should listen to a couple of Billionaires and what they were saying about Bitcoin instead of asking the layman.

In the Lisbon Websummit conference, one of the biggest Silicon Valley icon,

Quel est l'avenir de Bitcoin? Deviendra-t-il une monnaie dominante ou sa popularité diminuera-t-elle et pourquoi?

Tim Draper who made over $1 billion by getting early on Twitter, Skype, Tesla had this to say:

at-il dit Forbes:

"In five years, if you try to use fiat currency, they will laugh at you. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies will be so relevant... there will be no reason to have the fiat currencies."

Quel est l'avenir de Bitcoin? Deviendra-t-il une monnaie dominante ou sa popularité diminuera-t-elle et pourquoi?

Hedge fund legend Mike Novogratz on the other hand predicted last month that Bitcoin will hit $10,000 in the next few months time.

And he’s not just saying it, he’s putting his money where his mouth is with a $500 million crypto-fund.

Recently, after the short $1000 dip from the Segwit2x cancellation, he was also rumored to have bought $15–20 million worth of Bitcoin. (probably less than 1% of his portfolio)

Quel est l'avenir de Bitcoin? Deviendra-t-il une monnaie dominante ou sa popularité diminuera-t-elle et pourquoi?

John McAfee - creator of the antivirus software predicts that Bitcoin will hit $500,000 within three years.

Mark Cuban changed his long term skepticism and invested in a Bitcoin ETN. But he said you got to pretend like you’ve lost your money like collecting art or baseball card.

Bill Gates mentioned in 2014 during an interview that Bitcoin is “Better Than Currency"

Richard Branson Thinks Bitcoin is Working and is an investor in Bitpay a Bitcoin payment processing platform

Of course, there’s no guarantees these guys will be right, but they’re the 1% and we’re the 99%. So who would you listen to?

Warren Buffett is probably one of the famous Billionaires who says Bitcoin is “The Real Bubble”

For me , I haven’t heard of these types of bullish forecasts since the early days of the internet and tech bubble. Or you might have read the famous comparison to the Tulip mania.

But how can you still compare Tulip Bulbs to cryptos? Personally it doesn’t make sense.

To understand why Bitcoin is a révolution and a brand new asset class that is completely different from stocks, bonds and other traditional currencies you’ve got to read this.

Faisal Khan

Faisal KhanBitcoin est la meilleure chose qui puisse arriver à l’humanité depuis le pain tranché.

Mise à jour il y a 43w · Voté par

Roger Gu, Former Director of Partnerships for Coinbase · Author has 5.4k answers and 16.5m answer views

Réponse d'origine: What is the realistic future for Bitcoin?

Quel est l'avenir de Bitcoin? Deviendra-t-il une monnaie dominante ou sa popularité diminuera-t-elle et pourquoi?

No one knows for sure (with any degree of certainty). Having said that, most agree the future is bright. That statement does have a few caveats. The following is my prediction:

  • Bitcoin itself as a protocol will evolve. Many people forget the simple fact that it is a protocol first and the money part just happens to be the first app written over it. Think of it like the Netscape browser written for (predominantly) HTTP. It was good at its time, but then other browsers took the mantle and Netscape was dethroned. The same analogy pourriez apply to bitcoins (the money). It could be dethroned and for all we know Dogecoin or Litecoin could prevail.
  • The Buying process of Bitcoins will have to be made much more simpler than it is at present. All indications point that the process va alors get more streamlined, so buying bitcoins will be an easy task.
  • In most countries (US included), companies that trade Bitcoins onto the local currency would be regulated. More exchange companies will mushroom.
  • Acceptance. Until and unless Buyers keep pressing / asking Merchant to accept Bitcoins, merchants will be oblivious to the demand. If you walk into a store and ask if they accept Bitcoins and they answer No, this is the expected answer. Repeat this scenario with 10 other Buyers asking the same and the Merchant will think differently. They just pourrait start looking at Bitcoin acceptance.
  • Much of the developed world where payment systems that enable instantaneous person-to-person payment are ne pas available, would love to adopt Bitcoin. The barriers are the regulators and the almost near vacuum of local Bitcoin exchanges. Look at India - no exchange in India. Same can be said of Pakistan, Bangladesh, GCC, Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand (though there are a few players in Thailand who are selling Bitcoins), North Africa, etc. There is a very large population that simply does not have access to buying bitcoins. Since they cannot buy it - they cannot trade with it. This will be changing in the coming months/years.
  • Volatility will minimize. I won't say it will disappear, the public at large is too sensitive to everything the media spews out relating to Bitcoins.
  • Arbitrage will almost be negligible.
  • You will see the movement pickup speed with a few authoritative anchor users accepting Bitcoins. (See this excellent article by our resident Payments Maestro Brian Roemmele - Starbucks To Accept Bitcoin In 2014. by Brian Roemmele on Accepting Payments).
  • As more and more larger corporations start offering Bitcoin as a payment alternative, many companies waiting in the shadows will jump onto the bandwagon. This chain-reaction trigger is very important for Bitcoin to survive. Many are waiting for the trigger.
  • I don't think the price for the next 2-3 years will break $5,000 (the expectation of it going to $25,000 to $500,00 - will be bad for Bitcoins in my opinion, too many speculative money will enter the ecosystem, which will cause regulators to clamp down hard on Bitcoin). My personal estimation is that it will hover between $1,000 to $2,500 (for the next 24 months at least).
  • Acceptance of Bitcoin as an alt. currency in developing countries would be very important (as opposed to outright banning it). I however, have my reservations on this. The regulators in the developing have a very myopic vision when it comes to alternative currencies. Such obtuse undertaking will kill Bitcoin (in a legal manner) in the developing world.
  • The market capitalization indicates in some manner that the currency is now too big to collapse (not that it cannot happen), by a measure of its own self, it will most likely survive.
  • Bitcoin will be featured regularly in the Remittance World (a sure sign of its success would be the World Bank reporting remittance figures on the Bitcoin platform) - How this will be done, is debatable and questionable, but I'm leaning in as a proponent.
  • Snap Payments with Bitcoins for Websites, Freelancers, etc. would be enabled. This means, very quickly accepting $25 in Bitcoins, which are in turn converted to Euros and available in your pre-paid Debit Card (all by inserting some simple code on your website to accept the payment). Think BitPay or Coinbase on steroids, globally.
  • Currency Brokers will be trading and dealing with Bitcoins more regularly.
  • Bitcoin exchanges in the West (perhaps US, or UK) will prosper and take over in volume (provided international clients are allowed to hop in and trade).
  • Incorporation of Bitcoin payments within Social Media would be the norm. You would definitely see native or plug-in based activity around Bitcoin. Think Twitter, Pinterest, Facebook, LinkedIn, etc.
  • Apps not related to money, but related to the open-ledger system of the Bitcoin protocol will start emerging. I'm absolutely lost when it comes to giving such examples, but I am sure, someone out there is thinking of a kick-ass way of using the Bitcoin protocol and building a non-payment app on top of it.
  • Currencies based on the Bitcoin protocol or modified protocol, will start seeing a market themselves for specific purposes. It could very well be that Litecoin might dominate the Remittance market, or changing Linden Dollars to Litecoin. Or Mastercoin is used on boards like Warrior Forum or Digital Point (the Affiliate Marketing Ecosystem) or peercoin is what is most accepted and traded in South Asia or South America. Such patterns and/or segmentation may very well emerge.
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Kim Iskyan

Kim Iskyan, Publisher of Stansberry Churchouse Research

Répondu il y a 113w · L'auteur dispose de réponses 213 et de vues de réponses 1.8m

It’s not going to become “digital gold” or a global safe-haven currency. But the underlying blockchain is another story.

Market bubbles are often based on “new paradigm” thinking – like a new concept or technology that’s considered revolutionary and with unlimited profit potential. But as prices keep rising, and paper fortunes are made, the mania takes on a life of its own. Business realities are forgotten, and getting rich on soaring prices is all that matters. Before long, the mania subsides, and prices fall – often dramatically.

The price surge of cryptocurrency bitcoin from US$215 last summer to a high of US$763 earlier this summer is an example of this kind of new paradigm thought. Bitcoin fans envision unlimited use of the digital currency, and unlimited profits for investors. They view it as the “gold of the digital era” – a safe haven for people to park their cash when the financial world is in turmoil.

(Bitcoin is digital money that is created and held electronically. At the core of bitcoin technology is a kind of super database called the “blockchain.” The blockchain is public and accessible to anyone, just like the internet. It allows anyone with internet access to make a financial transaction without the need for a middleman, like a bank.)

The latest bitcoin bubble may have popped

In the market bubbles cycle, the third, mania phase eventually tips over into the fourth “blow-off” phase, where all the gains are swiftly erased and paper fortunes vanish. Bitcoin has fallen over 20 percent from its June 16 high (we flagged the inevitability of a decline in bitcoin at around the same time). The blow-off appears to be underway, with much lower prices likely.

And one of the more recent catalysts was recent news that hackers stole about US$70 million worth of bitcoin from Bitfinex, a Hong-Kong based bitcoin exchange. Now a new, more realistic narrative may be driving bitcoin. Bitcoin is a speculative trading phenomenon. It’s not a legitimate alternative currency, and – besides its hacking problem – there are many obstacles to its widespread adoption.

Quel est l'avenir de Bitcoin? Deviendra-t-il une monnaie dominante ou sa popularité diminuera-t-elle et pourquoi?

The argument for higher bitcoin prices goes something like this: Similar to personal computers in the ‘70s and the Internet in the ‘90s, bitcoin is a disruptive technology that is just now going mainstream. Its use as a safe-haven currency will surge as global investors abandon paper currencies and seek alternatives. Because of bitcoin’s small market size, the tsunami of money chasing bitcoin will drive the digital currency’s price into the stratosphere.

It’s the “bitcoin as the gold of the digital era” narrative.

Bitcoin is not going mainstream any time soon

On the same day news of the US$70 million hack/heist surfaced, global investment bank Credit Suisse released a 135-page report on bitcoin, and its underlying blockchain technology. It noted 13 barriers to bitcoin becoming a mainstream currency and that it will remain a small player. In other words, bitcoin’s upside is not unlimited.

Credit Suisse also noted that the really disruptive thing about bitcoin is the underlying blockchain technology. It has legitimate promise – but in uses beyond bitcoin.

This doesn’t bode well for bitcoin’s price and its US$9.2 billion market value. The last time the bitcoin bubble burst, bitcoin fell from US$1137 in November of 2013, to US$310 a year later – a drop of 73 percent.

The biggest barriers to bitcoin going mainstream and becoming a “new paradigm” include:

  • Volatilité extrême. In U.S. dollar terms, bitcoin is 11 times more volatile than the British pound and 3 times more volatile than oil. Anything that volatile is not a reliable payment method or store of value.

It’s also way more volatile than gold – the classic “store of value” commodity. Gold prices are also volatile, but as shown on the chart below, gold’s price swings are like flat grasslands compared to bitcoin’s Himalayan peaks and valleys. This kind of bouncing around will discourage mainstream investors from getting involved with bitcoin.

Quel est l'avenir de Bitcoin? Deviendra-t-il une monnaie dominante ou sa popularité diminuera-t-elle et pourquoi?

  • Règlement. Anything that becomes really popular and that involves money eventually attracts the interest of government regulators. So, as bitcoin gains more users, expect countries like the U.S. and Chine (where cryptocurrencies like bitcoin are used to illegally move money in and out of the country) to crack down on its use, or regulate it to death.
  • Perceived security risk. The news of hackers stealing 119,756 bitcoins (US$70 million) in Hong Kong validates this concern. Anything connected to the internet is vulnerable to a cyber attack. And even though the hackers stole from traders’ accounts, and not the underlying blockchain, the general public will not understand the difference. All they will think is that bitcoins can be stolen by hackers.

If bitcoin is to rival Visa and MasterCard as a vehicle for financial transactions, or if it is to become a digital safe-haven currency like gold, it will have to build significant trust with users and investors. And it can take decades to build up that trust. Credit cards did not gain widespread acceptance overnight.

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Gold has been used as a medium of exchange and a storehouse of value for thousands of years. Gold is tangible – it can be held in your hand, or hidden in your closet. Gold can’t be destroyed. Though a bit more is mined every year, the supply of gold is relatively finite, unlike paper money which can be continually printed. Humans have a long history of trust in gold.

In contrast, the trust factor for bitcoin is based on something else – technology. While tech enthusiasts may have faith in the arcane math of the blockchain, only a tiny minority of the world’s population could explain bitcoin technology in detail. It’s hard to have confidence in something you can’t understand or explain.

So the great new era of bitcoin probably isn’t happening. While the underlying blockchain will likely lead to revolutionary technologies, bitcoin won’t be putting Visa or Western Union out of business anytime soon. And when global investors need a safe haven currency for their money in uncertain times, it will likely be the yellow metal they buy, not a digital version.

For more on the case for buying gold, click ici for your free copy of our latest gold report.

For more insight and education about a ​range of finance and investment ​issues, you can also receive my free daily investment newsletter by clicking ici .

Devin Milsom

Devin Milsom, Enthousiaste de Blockchain, investisseur et blogueur

Répondu il y a 46w · L'auteur dispose de réponses 390 et de vues de réponses 2.3m

Bitcoin’s future is uncertain in terms of REAL adoption, in terms of price I strongly belive that Bitcoin is going to reach near $100,00 before this bubble bursts.

Here are a few concerns I have for Bitcoin’s long term survival:

1. Consommation d'énergie

Une étude de Digiconomist a révélé que chaque transaction sur la blockchain Bitcoin utilise une valeur d'électricité de 236 KWh, ce montant est suffisant pour alimenter les ménages américains 8 pendant une journée entière.

Maintenant, pour mettre les choses en perspective, il y a plus de transactions 300,000 par jour. À ce rythme, Bitcoin consomme plus d'électricité par an que l'ensemble du Nigéria et cela ne fait qu'augmenter.

Lire la suite ici: Bitcoin Energy Consumption Index - Digiconomist

Les preuves de travail ne sont absolument pas rentables et nuisent à l'environnement à un rythme alarmant.

2. Problèmes d'évolutivité

La consommation d'énergie gênera les problèmes d'évolutivité de Bitcoin. Cependant, l'autre problème qui se pose avec l'extraction de prisonniers de guerre réside dans le fait que l'augmentation du coût associé à l'extraction de BTC rend l'exploitation de Bitcoin moins économique. Cela limiterait globalement les nœuds distribués (mineurs) et permettrait un pourcentage plus important de contrôle aux pools / fermes miniers dominants.

Cela conduirait à une blockchain plus centralisée, où ils peuvent changer les règles de BTC à leur guise.

L'offre de Bitcoin est finie, plafonnée à 21 millions. Éventuellement (prévu pour 2140), le stock de Bitcoin sera épuisé. Une fois que cela se produit, les mineurs ne recevront plus de récompenses pour avoir terminé des blocs mais recevront des frais. Les frais seront considérablement élevés en termes relatifs et les gens arrêteront d'utiliser la blockchain.

De plus, si les mineurs décident que cela n’est pas rentable pour eux de traiter les transactions et d’utiliser leur puissance de calcul ailleurs, la vitesse des transactions pour Bitcoin ralentira considérablement, rendant inutilisable l’une des valeurs fondamentales du Bitcoin (rapidité).

3. L'avenir inconnu

Bitcoin n'est pas une blockchain supérieure, il existe des centaines de projets plus rapides, moins chers et plus précieux que Bitcoin. Bitcoin domine le marché car il s’agit de l’une des premières et des plus importantes crypto-devises (savez-vous que le prix du BTC est directement lié au nombre de recherches effectuées sur Google) Voici quelques éléments qui pourraient réellement mettre fin à l'ère dominante de Bitcoin:

I) Une entreprise de premier ordre arrive sur les marchés

C’est plus vrai pour toutes les crypto-monnaies, mais en particulier pour Bitcoin. Ce n’est pas une question de savoir si, mais une question de savoir quand une entreprise de premier ordre telle que Facebook, Amazon ou Google décidera d’implémenter sa propre crypto-monnaie, elle dominera le marché.

The consumer trust is already with these big companies, and they have the power and capital to influence the entire market.

Une autre possibilité est une "pièce du monde" potentielle sur laquelle tous les gouvernements mondiaux conviendront d'utiliser. Cela peut sembler irréaliste, mais ce n'est certainement pas impossible et de nombreux avantages découleraient d'une telle monnaie.

II) Informatique quantique

Bitcoin est dit résistant au Quantum. Sur le livre blanc, il est mentionné que:

'Pour compenser l'augmentation de la vitesse du matériel et l'intérêt variable d'exécuter des nœuds au fil du temps, la difficulté de la preuve de travail est déterminée par une moyenne mobile ciblant un nombre moyen de blocs par heure. Si elles sont générées trop rapidement, la difficulté augmente.

Cela peut sembler résistant quantique, mais il est important de comprendre que la difficulté est changée toutes les minutes 10 et que le temps est largement suffisant pour que QC puisse extraire toutes les pièces restantes de Bitcoin.

L’autre problème présenté par QC est qu’il est possible que QC calcule les clés privées des personnes pour leur portefeuille BTC. Je ne connais pas les détails techniques de la procédure, mais d'après ce que j'ai lu, c'est possible.

III) Bulle de Bitcoin

Mon dernier point pour cette section est que la plupart des gens n'achètent pas le bitcoin en tant que réserve de valeur ou en tant que monnaie. Pour la plupart des gens, le bitcoin est un investissement spéculatif dans l'espoir de faire fortune sur quelque chose qu'ils ne connaissent pas vraiment.

Lorsque la bulle atteindra son apogée et que les gens commenceront à paniquer, Bitcoin s’effondrera inévitablement avec cela. Après tout, le prix de Bitcoin est déterminé par la demande par rapport à l'offre.

In the light of a fair argument, I would like to point out that Bitcoin can change to tackle these issues and substantially increase its long-term survival. Bitcoin has a massive passionate community behind it and this reason why Bitcoin has grown to where it is today.

I hope this article provides some insight on the scalability issues that Bitcoin faces.

Merci pour la lecture,

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Devin

Si vous voulez en savoir plus sur les crypto-monnaies, visitez mon blog: www.cryptoinvestorsclub.co.uk

Post-scriptum Si vous vous inscrivez, vous recevrez un email exclusif qui détaille les principales crypto-monnaies 5 dans lesquelles j'investis et pourquoi.

Admir Tulic

Admir Tulic, Crypto Enthusiast and Investor

Répondu il y a 51w · L'auteur dispose de réponses 253 et de vues de réponses 1.6m

Réponse d'origine: What is the future of Bitcoin?

Bitcoins were designed to be – and, in many ways, are – the perfect digital currency: they’re frictionless, anonymous, and cryptographically astonishingly secure. For anybody who’s ever suffered the incompetence of a bank, or bristled at the fees involved in just spending money, either domestically or abroad – that is to say, for all of us – the promise of bitcoin is the holy grail of payments. Especially since, to all intents and purposes, bitcoins are invisible to law enforcement and the taxman.

Those strengths are also weaknesses. No one wants to risk losing millions of dollars worth of currency overnight, just because they were outsmarted by some computer hacker.

Les chances sont que Gouvernements will want to control monetary policy "manually" (politically), as opposed to let math do the decisions for them.

That would mean for governments to give up the crucially important power to willfully control wealth distribution.

I see this part by far the biggest hurdle in the future of Bitcoin.

Although the political slogan in all developed countries is "free market economy" - it is only free, as long as the political elite is free to set the rules. Including monetary policies.

The technical ingenuity of Bitcoin is that it is a platform, that allows to bypass this nation state government power and control, by connecting citizens directly, anywhere around the globe to vote about the price of a mutually accepted, therefore existing currency, that they can use among each other to trade goods and services - purely on the value that is determined across the globe, real time, by them, the participating individual citizens.

The implication of this is hard to overestimate.


Bitcoin is the first mover in the market and there is no reason to believe that Bitcoin will not be a leader over the next decade because the growth of this market has inherent positive feed-back loops.

As the market grows in size the developers who believe in the durability of Bitcoin in the long term have more funds, and time to invest in technological improvements.

Visit my blog to read more about bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

Hugo Ferreira Garcia

Hugo Ferreira Garcia, Consultant Futurist. Investigator, Speaker, Facilitator and Writer.

Répondu il y a 46w · L'auteur dispose de réponses 133 et de vues de réponses 322.7k

It will grow, and then it will die. And it will stay dead.

The thing is bitcoin has failed as a currency. Don’t get me wrong. Virtual currencies are a great idea and they are the Future, but not bitcoin.

To be a currency, there needs to be some stability. Say you are going to pay 1000 dollars in bitcoin, but you wait until tomorrow, but now the price has gone up. Will you pay the same ammount of bitcoins or 1000 dollars at the new price?

Sure, currencies have fluctuations too. But there is an entire ecosystem. A company will try to do it’s entire services in one currency, so they can make relations between all their costs. Saying that there is a bar that accepts bitcoins means nothing. They are just doing that from publicity.

Now, there has been some situations where a country’s currency is devaluating rapidly (Brazil, Zimbabwe, Venezuela). In those situations, citizens avoid doing business in that currency, and those who can’t have a huge problem.

The only reason it’s going up, is that people are buying, but the only reason people are buying is that it is going up. This is the exact definition of a bubble. Even those who are not buying have this awful feeling of missing out. “what if I bought 3 months ago, and sold it today?”

So, we will keep on pouring money in, until it doesn’t make a huge difference. Then, everybody is going to start selling it, and suddenly nobody is buying.

That will be Game Over.

Ellery Davies

Ellery Davies, Coprésident: normes de crypto-monnaie Asso. Producteur et animateur: l'événement Bitcoin

Répondu il y a 141w · L'auteur dispose de réponses 739 et de vues de réponses 4.1m

Bitcoin has hit three speed bumps in its market perception and evolution. None of these present a serious impediment to long-term adoption and growth:

  • First, it was the perception that cryptocurrency was a tool of crime, vice or tax evasion. This proved to be a false perception.
  • Then, it was the mismanagement and/or insolvency of exchanges and hosted wallet services. One might expect such events before the emergence of standards & practices and trusted accreditation bureaus. In any event, they are moot to early adopters that understand the tools.
  • And now there exists a ‘forking crisis’ which is a result of a reduced mining reward, increased computational complexity and differences of opinion about solving transaction problems that are not really so hard to resolve.

And so, what will be the uptake and growth as Bitcoin becomes a mature vehicle for moving money—and perhaps even becoming the money itself? I see the 4~8 year future of Bitcoin as a series of reactions. Like a line of dominoes, many of these steps are dependent upon the previous step.

First, regardless of your opinion about Bitcoin as a threat to national currencies, it does one thing that few pundits dispute: Although the exchange v

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