Vlad Rasskazov, Spécialiste principal en développement des affaires chez Rostelecom
Mise à jour il y a 54w
In my opinion, 99% it’s due to financial illiteracy.
Here is a good example of cryptocurrency pricing:
Le mois dernier, Burger King (BK) a lancé en Russie un programme de fidélité soutenu par une crypto-monnaie appelée «Whoppercoin».
ICO a été lancé sur la plateforme Waves - les pièces sont distribuées via le programme de fidélité BK. Si vous voulez obtenir des whoppercoins, vous devriez:
1. acheter quelque chose à BK
2. enregistrer le chèque
3. le scanner
4. envoyez-le par e-mail à BK en indiquant votre portefeuille Waves
5. obtenez un Whoppercoin pour chaque rouble du chèque
“Chaque rouble dépensé vous rapporte un Whoppercoin”
Au début, l'idée était simple.
1700 rub = 1700 Whoppercoins = 1 Whopper
Enregistrez 1700 Whoppercoins et achetez 1 Whopper.
Le prix d'un Whopper à Moscou BK est de 170 roubles. Il en résulte que chaque 11th Whopper est gratuit. Un programme de fidélité évident.
Toutefois, selon les échanges sur le marché, ce n’est pas la meilleure façon de dépenser vos Whoppercoins.
Le marché dit: «Vous devriez échangez-les!
Modélisons une situation. Il y a John.
John a dépensé des roubles 1700 en BK et a obtenu des Whoppercoins 1700 sur son portefeuille Waves.
Dans le monde de John, il n'y a que des roubles et des Whoppers. John gagne des roubles pour manger autant de Whoppers que possible, car cela augmente son bonheur.
Il aime vraiment ce nouveau programme de fidélité, car il augmente son bonheur.
Maintenant il peut manger 110% de plus Whoppers, alors il est 110% plus heureux.
Mais ensuite, John rencontre un cryptotrader nommé Smith qui lui propose de payer tous ses Whoppers, si seulement il lui apportait des chèques.
Smith utilise la plateforme Waves pour gagner de l'argent avec un simple arbitrage régime.
Il vend les Whoppercoins de 1700 John pour obtenir Waves. Il échange des vagues contre des dollars et vend des dollars pour acheter des roubles.
1700 Whoppercoins * 0.014 = 23.8 Waves
23.8 Waves * 4.90 = 116.62 USD
116.62 USD * 57.55 = 6711.48 RUB
* les coûts de transaction sont 0.003 * 2 Waves
Cette fois, Smith paya 1700 à John et sauva 5011.48 pour acheter 29 Whoppers pour lui-même. Tout le monde est heureux.
Attendez mais pourquoi… La demande pour cette monnaie est SI ÉLEVÉE!
Le prix juste d'un Whoppercoin basé sur son pouvoir d'achat est 0.1 rouble.
Sur le marché, un Whoppercoin peut être vendu jusqu'à 3.95 roubles.
«Le prix du marché est 40 fois son juste prix»
Les acteurs du marché ne sont pas très brillants ou les Whoppercoins sont utilisés pour des affaires illégales.
À mon avis, les Whoppercoins ne sont trop chers qu'en raison d'un battage publicitaire autour de tout ce qui concerne les cryptocurrecies. Même si les Whoppercoins étaient utilisés dans un système de blanchiment d'argent fou, le prix du marché ne devrait pas être aussi élevé.
Les autorités russes sont très méfiantes envers les crypto-monnaies. En conséquence, ce programme de fidélité a été arrêté la semaine dernière par le Service fédéral de sécurité de Russie.
Il est facile de chiffrer les Whoppercoins, car ils ne peuvent être utilisés que pour acheter des Whoppers.
Les gens ne parviennent toujours pas à chiffrer la cryptocuurence.
En cas de bitcoin et d'etherium, il est presque impossible de chiffrer la pièce.
Cependant, cet exemple peut vous aider à établir certaines analogies.
Si vous avez apprécié cette explication, veuillez vérifier:
Whoppercoin: arbitrage de crypto-monnaie - Vlad Rasskazov - Medium
Manish Kumar, Investisseur crypto, a converti 600 $ en 10000 $ (2017-present)
Répondu il y a 60w · L'auteur dispose de réponses 332 et de vues de réponses 552.1k
Bitcoins and other cryptocurrencies are not governed by banks or the governments, hence no one controls the price.
C'est tout demand and supply.
High demand, low supply leads to price increase.
There are 21M Bitcoins ever created out of which 16M are in the market circulation (rest are yet to be mined or sitting idle). Considering just USA’s population which was 324M+ in 2016, and 16M Bitcoin.
There are not enough Bitcoin for everyone, also people accumulate Bitcoin for investing hence more Bitcoin off the market.
If Bitcoin touches $10,000 in couple of months or year, I won’t be surprised.
Bitcoin is and will be the king for at least next 4,5 years. Keep calm and trust Bitcoin
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Matias Antonio, PDG de DigiCor Asset Management (2017-present)
Répondu il y a 29w · L'auteur dispose de réponses 88 et de vues de réponses 17k
Good question. Very difficult to answer. Right now, fluctuations in value are currently driven by sentiment, and these shift quickly and violently with news. So then the question is what is the terminal value? and are we far away from it?
The problem is, that discovering that terminal market cap is difficult. The value of digital assets, in general, is entirely driven by demand. This is because supply is usually known ex-ante. The lack of widespread adoption implies that the reasons (i.e. the demand drivers) why you’d need to buy bitcoin for a transaction, vs USD, hasn’t been defined. In other words, the demand drivers at this stage are unknown. Therefore, determining a “fair” valuation (i.e. terminal value) for cryptos, like Bitcoin, is very difficult.
Then, why are people buying it right now? Why is Bitcoin worth the current $200bn? The reason, I think, is that the potential value capture due to the large efficiency gains it brings, is inmense. For context, the SWIFT bank network, the current standard for bank to bank transactions, alone has over $100bn daily transactions. A lot of this value is currently being priced-in, but relative to the potential capture is still small. However, this is a speculative value. Since, at the end of the day, no one knows with certainty what Bitcoin, or other crypto assets, will ultimately be used for.
For more info in crypto investing or looking for market updates, check out our Blog.
Jacob Taylor, Controller (2016-present)
Répondu il y a 42w · L'auteur dispose de réponses 53 et de vues de réponses 32.2k
Speculation and momentum investing are chiefly responsible for the astronomical rise recently. By the way, currencies are NOT investments, they should not substantially appreciate (or depreciate) over short periods of time (like a year).
Bitcoin has resonate excitement and loyalty from a core group of inventors and idealistic communities (usually online, a diverse range of groups usually trending anti-establishment) that sustain some core demand and promote it. It provides some very niche utility (anonymity and portability, especially), and slowly growing general utility. It has an absolute maximum number of units, though highly divisible, thus supply is more limited than anything naturally occurring.
The value a year ago was probably more like its real value based on utility. The difference between that price and today’s price is speculation. My evidence is that real world utility (buy goods or services) has not dramatically changed in the past year other than the trading value, or really 4 months, but value is up thousands of percent. Trading volume vs transaction volume is hard to determine, but it appears that around 75% of Bitcoin volume is exchange trading (and only around 25% is transactional—that is, for a good or service, not another currency).
The reason people are speculating is that it promises 3 things:
- You will become rich, maybe even a millionaire, or even billionaire, very quickly just by being…
- clever and visionary and buying some bitcoins, and you can be proud of that because you’ll also…
- help make the world a better place by replacing the evil banks and governments that manipulate currency.
There is a lot of economic theories mixed together inappropriately to explain a lot of things. Not that that is uncommon, many economics PHDs are full of hot air and a lot of meaningless theories. Nevertheless, some aspects of our reality (economics or otherwise) are terrifying, and upon learning a little people often become outraged and terrified that the world is much less fair and solid than they thought.
Bitcoin would ultimately be no different in one respect though, there would be some arbitrarily outrageously rich people, and everyone else that does their bidding.
Currencies exist to exchange goods and services easily—solve the double coincidence of wants problem, specifically. There are MANY ways to structure currency—some eliminate scarcity altogether and still function just fine. Others are based on energy, silver and gold, sea shells, most are just based on our shared perception of value. Banks flex the supply to keep the value relatively constant during economic expansions and contractions, so people focus on goods and services rather than the currency itself. To be effective, they need to be a reasonable store of value on the short term. Again, Currencies are NOT investments, they should not substantially appreciate (or depreciate).
Atulya Bhatt, Block-chanter
Répondu il y a 73w · L'auteur dispose de réponses 54 et de vues de réponses 87.6k
Selon Dictionnaire d'affaires, money is anything that serves as
(1) generally accepted medium of financial exchange, (2) legal tender for repayment of debt, (3) standard of value, (4) unit of accounting measure, and (5) means to save or store purchasing power.
La hausse des Bitcoin et autres cryptocurrencies has forced us to rethink what money is and what it can be. I find it illuminating to go beyond the narrow fonctions of money listed above, and to consider as well the types of valeur which underpin money. By my estimation, there are three main sources of value driving a currency’s price:
- PRODUCTION: the direct cost and opportunity cost of producing the currency
- Rareté: how much currency is in circulation
- utilitaire: what the currency can be used for
We will explore all three, and in doing so, I’ll argue how “dollar for dollar” cryptocurrencies are more valuable than dollars.
Up until relatively recently, government-issued currencies (like the U.S. Dollar) were backed by a hard asset such as gold. Meaning at any time you could redeem dollar bills for a predetermined amount of gold from the U.S. government. In order to issue more money, the government would have to place a corresponding amount of gold into the treasury in order to cover the redeemable obligations.
This arrangement begs the questions: where does the gold come from, and how does the government acquire more gold when it wants to issue new currency? The fundamental answer is of course, exploitation minière.
Mining has both a direct cost and an opportunity cost. The direct cost involves labor, machinery, ownership or access to the land, and so on. The opportunity cost is the value of what could have been done with the same labor, machinery, land, etc. For instance, a gold miner must consider the opportunity cost of mining for something more lucrative, like diamonds.
Taken together, the direct cost and opportunity cost of producing something makes up its total production value.
These days, governments do not bother backing their currency with a commodity like gold. Instead, they issue money by décret and back it with the “full faith and credit” of the government itself.
As a consequence, fiat currencies have very little production value. Furthermore, they are vulnerable to hyperinflation (like what happened in Brazil, Russia and 19 other countries over the last 25 years) or debt default (which has happened to just about every major monetary system at least once since 1800, including the United States).
Ironically, one of the main critiques of Bitcoin is there apparaît to be nothing tangible backing the currency. But in reality Bitcoin is backed by its high production cost. Bitcoin is produced via a virtual “mining” process, which takes exponentially more computing power each time a new cache of Bitcoin is mined. Mining not only requires specialized hardware, but electricity to run and cool that hardware.
Critics argue that the energy spent on mining Bitcoin is arbitrary and wasteful. But this is precisely what makes Bitcoin secure, and immune from hackers and governments alike.
As basic economic theory tells us, the financial value of anything is reflected in its fair market price, which in turn is a reflection of both the supply and demand. The demand for a currency is fueled by its utilitaire. Assuming a certain amount of demand, the price — and thus the value — of a currency is determined by its supply. Put another way, the more scarce a currency is, the more valuable it is (all else being equal).
As discussed, with fiat money, there is unlimited supply; the government can simply issue new currency by fiat. Even in the case of a gold standard, the supply is effectively unlimited. To wit: the Earth holds a finite supply of gold, but if the price of gold were high enough on the open market, it would be worth the cost to mine asteroids for gold or transmuter gold from other elements.
And here’s where Bitcoin gets interesting.
Bitcoin (and most other cryptocurrencies) are designed to have a fixed supply. Once 21 million Bitcoins have been mined, there will be no more to mine. Thus, Bitcoins, being purely mathematical abstractions, are amongst the most scarce commodities in the known universe. Which means that their scarcity value is much greater than gold, silver, or any physical commodity.
As of this writing, about 75% of all Bitcoins have been mined — the last one is projected to be mined around the year 2045. This is why some futurists prévoir cette
(a) cryptocurrency will eventually replace gold;
(b) replace the U.S. Dollar as the world’s reserve currency;
(c) the price per Bitcoin will eventually increase over a thousandfold to reach $1 Million per coin.
By the old world definition of money, Bitcoin fails on the “legal tender” aspect, but over time it has become increasingly useful in the other aspects. However, fiat money and Bitcoin both have limited utility, when we compare them to the growing universe of alternative cryptocurrencies.
If you are like most people, you probably aren’t aware of the “Cambrian explosion” of new cryptocurrencies over the last several years, so here’s a sampling:
À partir du http://coinmarketcap.com/ where there are over 700 listed cryptocurrencies as of this writing
What you are looking at is the rise of the blockchain token and the decentralized business model (sometimes called “app coins”).
Considérer Golem, which works like “AirBnB for your spare computing cycles,” and which backs its currency with a globally distributed supercomputer. If the coin takes off and becomes one of the dominant cryptocurrencies, it could transform the way the internet works, taking the power out of large corporations like Google and AT&T, and putting it into the (literal) hands of the people, via their smartphones and laptop computers.
Ou prendre steem, which is a decentralized version of Reddit. Instead of Facebook getting paid for selling advertising over your content, vous are getting paid, in cryptocurrency, each time someone reads or likes your post. The more people who write and read on Steem, the more valuable its network becomes, and the higher the prix Steem cryptocurrency commands on the open market.
Ever wonder what a world without corporations or and without central government might look like? This is what Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies and the blockchain are all about. This is why they are so valuable.
Répondu il y a 73w
There are numerous factors that have gone into making these cryptocurrencies go up. And they will keep going up for some more time before the bubble is burst.
However, the recent skyrocketing of the prices have been caused by limited number of factors. One of them is the behaviour of Asian economies with respect to cryptocurrencies and otherwise.
Here’s my answer on Steemit elabrating on the same.
Reports have started coming in about how the fall in Chinese stock exchange might be fuelling the rise in Bitcoin price. Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO of DoubleLine Capital was the first to point it out when he tweeted this.
Bitcoin up 100% in under 2 months. Shanghai down almost 10% same timeframe, compared to most global stocks up. Probably not a coincidence!
— Jeffrey Gundlach (@TruthGundlach) 23 mai 2017
The Chinese yuan's weakness in the last two years has prompted the Chinese search for safe investments outside the country. However, this phenomenon was preceded by a fall in Bitcoin trade in China, in January. In fact, China's share of global bitcoin trade volume, as measured by trade in yuan, has fallen from a roughly 80 to 95 percent share to 10 percent or less since January.
Six-month bitcoin trade volume by currency
Similar volatility has also been visible in Japan and Korean markets. All these phenomena can be traced back to the stricter implementation of Know Your Customer (KYC) and Anti-money laundering (AML) policies in these three countries.
Japan and South Korea, the third and fourth largest bitcoin exchange markets, have seen premium prices ever since the launch of local bitcoin exchanges and markets.
The Japanese bitcoin exchange has recently seen a sharp 25% fall in trading volume and market share due to the strong comeback of the Chinese bitcoin exchange market. This can be explained by assuming that Chinese investors were temporarily trading bitcoin in the Japanese bitcoin exchange market due to the suspension of withdrawals placed on local bitcoin exchanges by Chinese regulators.
- Joseph Young (@iamjosephyoung) 23 mai 2017
Due to Japan’s extremely strict AML policies Japanese traders have not been able to take advantage of the arbitrage opportunity without being flagged by regulated exchanges and authorities.
South Korea, another giant Bitcoin market also has a similar volatile story to tell.
The premium rate on South Korean Bitcoin exchanges which used to hover around 10% increased to 30% on May 23rd.
This can again be attributed to the strict implementation of AML and KYC policies.
When a similar policy was implemented in China earlier, simultaneously suspending withdrawal of local Bitcoin exchanges, over-the-counter (OTC) markets such as LocalBitcoins saw a boom in business. OTC markets are Bitcoin trading platform wherein buyers and seller directly initiate deals to purchase or sell Bitcoin.
In South Korea, exactly the opposite happened. the demand for Bitcoin has continued to rise despite the premium rate that is currently being demonstrated by South Korea’s Bitcoin exchanges.
Looks like the Koreans might have a bit more law abiding citizens than the Chinese.
Add to that the fact that Moody’s has cut China's credit rating for first time since 1989, which will drive more Chinese to pull their money out of the Chinese economy and invest into Bitcoin.
All these and many more factors have gone into the steep rise of the Bitcoin market in the recent time. And if the writing is clear enough on the wall, the rise is going to continue for a while now.
The Steem link is https://steemit.com/@kasati
Follow me on Steem for more of such exciting stories.