La séparation de PayPal et d’eBay est-elle une bonne chose pour les actionnaires actuels d’eBay? Pourquoi ou pourquoi pas?

Suresh Korada

Suresh Korada, Chef de produit

Mise à jour il y a 210w

PayPal split is good for ebay shareholders.

ebay and PayPal will independently get higher valuation compared to the current combined ebay valuation. This is the primary reason why ebay's big investors have been asking for the split. (Side note: ebay shares were up by about 7.5% after the announcement of split. However, they have corrected a bit since then. Anyways, it's difficult to judge value creation on few days' trades. But it gives an indication that shareholders are happy and shareholders will get better value with the split. The benefit could be much higher once the actual split happens.)

Secondly, ebay shareholders can benefit by this transaction by choosing between ebay's stable & dividend yielding business and PayPal's growing but risky business. For investors who don't want to take higher risk can sell PayPal shares once the split happens. They can just retain ebay shares.

Below is why I feel ebay is stable and PayPal is risky.

ebay in the US is very strong in few business areas (auctions and marketplace - where millions of sellers sell their stuff). Transactions worth US$ 85 billion were done on ebay in the last 12 months. ebay's income in the last 12 months was US$ 10 billion. It's very difficult for any new company/competitor to do similar value of transactions. Although, Amazon does marketplace business, long-term ebay is in a better position to run this business since it doesn't sell its own stuff like Amazon does and hence doesn't compete with its sellers.

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PayPal too currently also has a strong business and growth. Transactions worth US$ 200 billion were done through PayPal in the last 12 months. PayPal's income was US$ 7.2 billion in the last 12 months. The big risk for PayPal's business is Apple Pay. We don't know how successful Apple Pay will be. But it's a big risk. So, for shareholders who don't want this big risk can sell PayPal shares once the split happens.

(Side note: Couple of years ago when I checked, payments transaction volume per year in the US was approx US$3.5 trillion (credit cards, debit cards and prepaid cards). Let's say 3 years down the line if Apple Pay/Android Pay are hugely successful and they process major part of this US$3.5 trillion payment volume. Consumers as a habit may start using Apple Pay / Andoid Pay for all their transactions ignoring PayPal. PayPal may find it difficult going ahead.

Yet, I think PayPal could win big if it becomes the independent payment platform which available on both Apple Pay and Android Pay. So, users when they move between Apple and Android don't have to worry about moving their payment cards. But will Apple allow PayPal to be on Apple NFC? So, again risks.

So, there are risks and rewards. Investors now have a choice with the split.)

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