How will the Polish Zloty – Euro exchange rate be set when Poland converts in 2015?

Ela Bednarek

Ela Bednarek, works at Asyncode

Répondu il y a 265w

First of all, Poland has no official target date for euro changeover. Adopting euro in 2015 is out of the question because fulfillment of the exchange-rate criterion (one of the four so called Maastricht Criteria or nominal convergence criteria) requires at least two-year membership in the ERM II, which Poland has not joined as of yet. The prerequisites of joining ERM II are laid out in Prerequisites for Implementation of the Next Stages of the Road Map for Euro Adoption in Poland. These conditions have not been fulfilled as of yet. As a result of the convergence criteria requirements and formal procedures, there is a ca. 3-year time span between joining ERM II and the euro adoption.

As for setting the exchange rate: The exchange rate will be set by the ECOFIN Council along with the decision to abrogate Poland"s derogation (in other words when the Council decides that Poland is ready to fulfill its commitment to join the the euro). Typically, the irrevocably fixed exchange rate is announced ca. six months before euro changeover.

That conversion rate has a lot to do with the central parity - the exchange rate that is set at the moment of entry to the ERM II and against which the Member State"s currency can fluctuate within the +/- 15% band. It is extremely important that the central parity is set in line with the economic fundamentals. If this is not the case, the Member State"s currency is at risk of experiencing tension while in ERM II and failing to fulfill the exchange criterion.

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The irrevocable conversion rate has typically been set at the central rate observed by the national currency within the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM II). It therefore provides the best reference for the fixing of the conversion rate. However, it is not certain that the initiale level of the central parity will be the eventual conversion rate. During ERM II membership central parity may need to be corrected (due to some fundamental developments within the economy, as reflected by the equilibrium exchange rate; this is what happened with the Slovak Koruna in ERM II for instance).

The relevant documents can be downloaded at Ministère des Finances

Caitlin Rogers

Caitlin Rogers

Répondu il y a 28w

Can anyone tell if it is really good to invest with Zloty polonais, as I have read that this is an exotic investment channel.

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